Every week I make NFL Picks against the spread here at The Props Network. But before we make bets for Week 12, let’s look back at the Week 11 that was.
Things We Think We Know…
That backdoor cover on the total in the Jags/Colts game was painful, but I am still not much of a believer in the Colts scoring ability.
They are still a run-first, grind-it-out team that would like to wear you down and control the clock. Also, just like we thought, Foles is out of rhythm with his offense. After the opening drive they didn’t do shit until getting a garbage time touchdown to screw the under. Things will come around, but part of me still thinks that Minshew’s mobility really helps the Jags offense. Now, the turnovers? Well, that’s something else.
The Rams offensive line had a decent showing against a regressing Bears defense, but don’t go running to the window on them just yet.
For Goff to be effective he needs an operational play action game, a whole offensive line, and a running back doing what Gurley did on Sunday night. It’s not that the Rams are frauds, it’s that Goff is really not all that and McVay needs to really open up the playbook.
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The Raiders are weird.
The goal line series in the second half was really bizarre. I have been singing Gruden’s praises for the past few weeks, but I would have liked to see some play action down there. I’d actually like to see a lot more play action league wide. The Raiders defense is mediocre at best, but Carr is having a resurgent season under Gruden.
The Steelers are horrendous.
But that Myles Garrett and Mason Rudolph altercation was hilarious. Sure, Garrett was a little rough on that sack, but Rudolph was obviously jawing. Then he tried to take Garrett’s helmet off. Garrett looked like a big brother who was saying to a little brother, “this is how you rip someone’s head off and BOP, take that with you.” Anyways, fade the Steelers with all those injuries and eyeball their games for unders if you see a number over 45.
The Pats are not humming along, but they are still the best at adjusting based on personnel.
Most other teams can’t do what they do because so many coaches have Coach Brain and just try to hammer square pegs into round holes. Sort of like what happened with Mike Martz and Mike McCarthy after everyone figured out their shit. They just kept running the same offensive system anyway. Brady had a pretty meh night, but the Pats still covered on the road thanks to a trick play touchdown pass and smart adjustments on both sides of the ball. When people say that no one can do what Bill does, what they are saying is that coaches are unwilling to do what Bill does.
Anyways…
The Broncos are still not as bad as their record, the Saints are back on track, the Redskins are the worst team in football, and where have these Falcons been all year. Also, the Niners are lucky they did not lose to Arizona twice and there are still a lot of folks who don’t have faith in Jimmy G. The Bears would be better off with Daniels and uh, calm down with the Rivers is washed talk. He has about one terrible game like that per year. However, the Chargers are washed, but dangerous ATS the rest of the season.
On to the NFL picks!
All Lines are from Unibet.
Detroit Lions -3.5 at Washington Redskins
O/U 41
Dwayne Haskins is not ready to be a starter in the NFL except in one way: He has balls. The shot of him approaching his offensive line on the sidelines after he suffered his sixth sack is awesome. He yells, “how can I help you!” Solid. Unfortunately, as long as Dan Snyder owns this team they are going to be truly terrible. Bill Callahan will not be the head coach next year and his in a care taker role.
Neither one of these teams are very good, but there’s some value because right now even Driskell is a better option than Haskins. Also, Matt Patricia might be coaching for his job. Lose to the Redskins and it becomes a hell of a lot easier for ownership to question the wisdom of hiring The Rocket Scientist, Matt Stafford broken back or not.
The Redskins don’t have much of a home field advantage anymore and Detroit is only 4-6 ATS including 1-3-1 on the road. Detroit’s won the last four matchups and I don’t think the Redskins have much of a chance in this one either. Take a hard look at the under since DC is averaging 12.5 PPG ranking them last in football.
THE PICK: UNDER 41
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Seattle Seahawks +1 at Philadelphia Eagles
O/U 48
I just don’t have a lot of faith in Philly. Every week feels like they put on what could turn into a good performance but in the end, they just end up being a .500 team. They’ve scored 234 points and given up 240. They have a ton of talent on both sides of the ball, but they can’t put together complete performances. I know the Pats have a premium defense, but you have got to be able to score more than 10. Philly does have a chance at the playoffs as their schedule eases up down the stretch,
Russell Wilson is coming off the bye and having an MVP caliber season. Sure, Seattle’s defense is trash and capable of pissing games away, but they are in the hunt for a division title and getting a point. It’s basically a pick ‘em and Seattle’s having one of those season’s where the team is winning close games almost every week. Next season may not be this way, but I think this week it is.
THE PICK: SEAHAWKS +1
Green Bay Packers +3 at San Francisco 49ers
O/U 48
The Niners outrank the Pack on almost every level. The only two stats the Pack has the edge on is passing yards and takeaways. As of Thursday evening, 93-percent of the money is on the Pack. That’s ridiculous, but understandable. I mean, sure, Jimmy G in no way can be compared to Rodgers, but short road dogs against bruising defenses are dicey except when you have Rodgers conducting the orchestra. Sure, I cashed the Pack in KC, but KC has no defense. Yes, the Niners got gashed last week by Kyler Murray, but Rodgers doesn’t run like Murray and has been at his best when he’s throwing the ball outside the numbers so watch him roll out a bit to make things happen.
The Packers defense has been regressing and I don’t like that against an elite running team like the Niners. You could see the Pack get a couple touchdowns and Rodgers weave some magic, but this is the sort of game the public loves to pile in on because the Pack is such a massively public darling. The Niners are a superior team, but have a shitload of injuries. Breida, Kittle, and Gould have been out and Sanders has been dinged up. Now Dee Ford is hurt, so there’s a big dog on the defensive line who may be down.
The line opened at 3.5, so if you’re backing Green Bay, jump on them on now before the line shrinks to 2.5. Personally, I lean the Pack and points. The Niners are a good three poor Kliff Kingsbury decisions away from losing both of those games to the Cards. Injuries are catching up with them and Jimmy G is not as good of a Qb as people think.
THE PICK: PACKERS +3
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