PGA Props – Our Best Bets for the RBC Heritage

The top PGA Tour prop bets from us online sportsbooks. Free picks for the RBC Heritage. Top Finishers, Nationality, College, Playoff Props and More.

PGA Tour Betting Preview - The RBC Heritage

C.T. Pan was the winner at the RBC Heritage in 2019. At -12, Pan outlasted the likes of Matt Kuchar, Scott Piercy, Shane Lowry and Patrick Cantlay for the win. Much like last week at the Charles Schwab, this field this week at Harbour Town is stacked in comparison to previous years. McIlroy, Rahm, Rose, Masuyama, Woodland , Fowler and Koepka are players making their first appearance at the RBC Heritage.  Other top WGR players like Justin Thomas (2016) and Patrick Reed (2015) haven’t played this event in a long time, but will return this year.  

What does this mean for betting?  We can expect another leaderboard with little room for long shots, and not much regard for course/event history. This is a major caliber field, and almost everyone is warmed up. So, the key stats and course fit should be weighed more heavily than previous performance.  

Let’s look at the key stats for this week and then pick our top props from the around the US online sportsbook world.

Key Stats for Harbour Town

  • Short Course that Plays Long

    Harbour Town is a par 71 playing 7099 yards. There are two getable par 5s on the front nine (505, 546). The par 4 9th is a 313 yd par 4 that can be sometimes be reached from the tee by longer hitters. But otherwise it's a layup and long second shot golf course and we haven't seen the bombers outperform short hitters here. But could we see a player like the new Big Bad Bryson overpower this course like it hasn't been before? The average driving distance at this event is 17 yards shorter than the average tour event, but that could change with the new-look field.

  • Bermuda Greens

    Note the change in putting surfaces from the bent grass last week. Look at good Bermuda putters and scramblers when making bets. Strokes gained putting always matters more at Harbour Town than driving accuracy and distance. Even if someone like Bryson or Rory can overpower this course, they will still have to make the putts on these surfaces.

  • Approach Game

    Strokes gained approach has been the second most important stat category for top ten finishers at the RBC Heritage. The majority of these shots end up being hit with mid-irons, not wedges, due to the driver being neutralized by the design of many holes. Strokes gained with quality approach shots from 150-200 are going to separate the top finishers from the pack.

PGA Props - Betting Picks for This Week at the RBC Heritage

Top ASU Player - RBC Heritage

RBC Heritage Top Finisher Props - Colleges
  • Jon Rahm -175
  • Matt Jones +500
  • Chez Reavie +500
  • Pat Perez +550 Is the pick. He is a terrific Bermuda putter, ranking 26th on the PGA Tour over his last 50 rounds on the surface. Perez out-putted and approached all three of the others last week, and I think the change in putting surface will help him finish better on the leaderboard this week. This is also a bet on Rahm to NOT improve with the flat stick this week. Historically he is not any better on Bermuda than he is on Bent.

Betting Without The Big Six

Top finisher without Dechambeau, McIlroy, Morikawa, Rahm, Schauffele and Thomas.
  • Webb Simpson is the pick at +2200, which I think is a good value influenced by recency bias after his missed cut last week. This wasn't his first missed cut at Colonial and his decision to skip the event all but once in the past (MC in 2018) makes me think he just doesn't like the Charles Schwab. His history at the RBC Heritage on the other hand points to this being one of Webb's favorite events. He's finished 11th, 5th and 16th place since 2017. I can see Webb getting it done with the medium to long approach shots, as he's gained more than 3 shots on approach in each of those good finishes at RBC. Plus, we all know Webb can scramble with the best of them. I’ll take this bet and also have action on Webb for a top-ten finish at +350.

Another Playoff?

Tournament winning margin props.
  • Over the past 5 years the RBC has twice been decided by a playoff, twice by 1 shot and one 2 shot victory. Things tend to stay tight at Harbour Town. With the quality of the field being as good as it was last week, the action should be equally competitive. It would be a surprise to see the RBC all of a sudden be decided by a land slide this year. I'll vote YES on To Be Decided by a playoff AGAIN for +400 at PointsBet Sportsbook. Not feeling the playoff? Take a 1-shot margin of victory for +250 at PointsBet or hedge one with the other.

Golf Stroke Special from DraftKings Sportsbook

Bet$25+ on any golfer to win the RBC Heritage this weekend and get $3 for every stroke they finish under par. T&Cs apply.

Three Obvious Props at the RBC Heritage

The most obvious bets for the PGA Tour this week.
  • Bryson Dechambeau Top 20 Finish (-110 at PointsBet Sportsbook NJ, IN, IA). Bryson now averages 325 yards of carry from the tee and he has 2 top fives in the past four tries at the RBC Heritage. He also looked like he wanted to eat the microphone on his way out of Colonial. Does taking near plus money on a top 20 finish here really require any further analysis?
  • Sungjae Im Top 10 (+400 at DraftKings Sportsbook). Sungjae missed the cut at the RBC last year. It was quite a departure from his usual game as he couldn't get off the tee or do anything with his approach shots. Maybe it was the wind which should not blow as hard this year? Really this course should set up great for Im, and obviously he has broken out in a big way since the 2019 debacle at Harbour Town. I think he will keep his top ten streak to four in a row on the PGA Tour.
  • Colin Morikawa Top 10 Finish (+138 at UniBet NJ and PA). The only thing missing from the game of Colin Morikawa when the PGA Tour shut down was putting. Well, he came out of quarantine and gained 3.4 strokes putting on the field at the Charles Schwab. This was his best putting performance yet on tour, and by almost a full stroke. If Morikawa can combine a real short game with the darts he throws every week, then he's going to win on the PGA Tour in batches.

Top English Player - RBC Heritage

PGA Nationality Props @ UniBet Sportsbook (PA, NJ).
  • Justin Rose +250
  • Tyrell Hatton +275
  • Matthew Fitzpatrick +400 is the pick in this group. If he can improve on accuracy this week, he should be able to get it done enough on the greens for a top 20 finish. I'm not seeing anyone else on the English board performing all that well at Harbour Town. Justin Rose would be skipping this event in a normal season and while he drained a lot of long putts last week, it should be noted that he always putts well on Bent and is usually bad on Bermuda. Fitzpatrick is the opposite. He ranks outside the top 120 in strokes gained putting over his last 50 rounds on Bent, while being top 10 in putting over his last 50 on Bermuda.
  • Ian Poulter +400
  • Luke Donald +1400
  • Matt Wallace +1400
  • Danny Willett

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