Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks host the Minnesota Vikings on Monday Night Football.
Monday Night Football, 8:15 PM on ESPN
This is a potential playoff matchup, that could feature some big time offensive fireworks. Prop bets could be the way to go tonight, with a tight spread trending around Vikings +3. Also, there will be capable QBs and coaches on both sidelines (yes, I called Kirk Cousins ‘capable’ ahead of a prime time game), and so this game could really swing either way. However, we do know that with NFC Wild Card positioning on the line, both teams will be hungry for the win.
Let’s look at our favorite options for Monday Night Football Prop Bets. To make these selections, we went straight to the Fantasy Football expert rankings at fantasydata.com. Fantasy football data is a great way to research the props for any game. They are using advanced data analytics to make predictions for fantasy, that can come true in betting too.
TOP 5 PROPS – VIKINGS vs SEAHAWKS
TOP PROP #1
Russell Wilson Passing Yards: Over/Under 265.5
Russ has totaled more than 265.5 yards passing, five times through eleven games this season. And, the Seahawk offense now ranks fifth in total yards per game (385.4).
The Vikings, widely considered to have a good defense, actually rank dead last in yards allowed to receivers over their last 5 games. As a result, Fantasy Data ranks the Vikings Defense 23rd this week while Wilson ranks third amongst Week 13 QBs. Wilson also holds FD’s fourth highest points projection at any position plus a passing yards projection of 273.5 yards.
Seattle’s running back situation has looked cloudy the last few weeks, and so I think they take advantage of the Vikings poor secondary play tonight. This is why i’ll be taking the OVER 265.5 on Russell Wilson passing yards at -112 Odds ($112 wins $100).
TOP PROP #2
Olabisi Johnson: Touchdown Scorer
Johnson has done a good job filling in for Adam Thielen as the Vikings second receiver this season. In fact, he was targeted nine times for 35 yards in the incredible Week 11 comeback effort against Denver. With Theilen ruled out tonight, the rookie receiver should again serve as the number 2 wide out behind Stefan Diggs.
In terms of end zone production, Johnson has already scored two touchdowns this season against KC and DET. So against a mediocre Seattle passing defense, in a game predicted to be high scoring (O/U is 49), this is is likely a night as any for Olabisi Johnson to score. I’ll give this prop a shot with the +350 odds at Unibet ($100 wins $350).
TOP PROP #3
D.K Metcalf Receiving Yards: OVER/UNDER 55.5
Earlier we mentioned that the Vikings have been giving up huge production to opposing wide receivers recently. So we expect another good night for Metcalf. The rookie receiver has surpassed the 55.5 yards receiving mark, six times this season, and should be heavily involved again against Minnesota.
Fantasy Data ranks Metcalf 23rd amongst all WRs for week 13 and projects 62.4 yards receiving in tonight’s game. That would be enough to cover the OVER. But, if Tyler Lockett is at all limited with the illness that has going around the Seattle locker room, Metcalf would be in line for even more targets and yardage.
Even with Lockett in the lineup, D.K has seen a big bump in targets recently. According to Fantasy Data, he’s had 6 or more looks from Wilson in four of the last five games. So, while I’m tempted to take his OVER 3.5 Receptions at Unibet for -143 Odds, I am also confident enough in the yardage total to take the better payout at -115 to go OVER 55.5 ($115 wins $100).
TOP PROP #4
Chris Carson Rushing Yards: OVER/UNDER 68.5
Carson is ranked 17th amongst running backs for week 13 on Fantasy Data. With a projection of 64 yards rushing, the data says it will be an average game for the lead Seattle ball carrier. Carson has totaled more than 68.5 yards on six occasions this season. However, last week he totaled mostly time on the bench while Rashaad Penny went off for a big game against the Eagles.
I predict that Coach Carroll will ride the hot hand, with Penny seeing a substantial share of the work load again this week. This won’t mean that Carson is demoted to a backup role, but it will be hard for him to get to 68.5 in any kind of workload share. So I’m going to use one of my free signup bets from Unibet to take the UNDER 68.5 Rushing Yards for Chris Carson for a -112 payout ($112 wins $100).
TOP PROP #5
Kyle Rudolph: First Touchdown Scorer
Fantasy Data ranks Rudolph 16th at Tight End for week 13, but this is somewhat misleading. With Adam Thielen now ruled out, Rudolph becomes a much larger part of the Vikings passing attack.
Rudolph has been a favorite red zone target recently for Wilson, totaling 5 touchdowns over the last 5 games. This included a two touchdown performance for the TE against Dallas in week 10.
The Seattle defense has not been very good against tight ends this year. According to Fantasy Data, they have actually given up the third-most fantasy points to the position. Even in a winning effort against the Eagles, the Seattle D was exposed by tight ends Dallas Goedert and Zach Ertz for 19 catches, 123 yards and a TD in week 12.
Kirk Cousins is on a mission to improve his prime time record, and so I think he will come out firing. If Minnesota gets the ball first, there’s a good chance they drive down the field and take a shot or two to the TE in the end zone. So, Rudolph to score a TD anytime in the game seems like a no-brainer at +220 ($100 wins $220) but I have a feeling that a Rudolph TD could be the first blast in a MNF shootout. Unibet is offering a +1500 payout if that happens, and I’ll take it.
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